2015 HiMCM B题特等奖学生论文下载6018
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论文摘要如下:
18th Annual High School Mathematical Contest in Modeling (HiMCM)
Summary Sheet
(Please attach a copy of this page to each copy of your Solution Paper.)
Team Control Number: 6018
Problem Chose: B
Our model serves to describe the safety of My City with a rating that can be compared to the FBI Crime Data for cities and metropolitan areas. The FBI data was approximated to represent a normal distribution, and because the My City data fit the normal distribution, the model was able to rate My City in relation to the cities and metropolitan areas within the United States. The model that was used to best represent that safety ranking was in which R m was the rating of the metropolitan area and was calculated with( W )R m =Σ c×Cm the summation of each of the major crime’s rate per 100,000 people for two weeks multiplied by its individual weights. The weights were calculated by the sentence of each crime using data from the United States Sentencing Commission by using the median sentence given for each crime used in the safety ranking.
The advantage to this rating system is that it incorporates the frequency of crime occurrences as well as the severity of the crime into the safety rating. The calculated safety rating for My City was 1370.9268 and the mean of the FBI metropolitan area ratings was 1462.467 with a standard deviation of 564.8396. As a result, the zscore of My City in relation to the population of FBI data was 0.1620636, meaning that it was safer than 56.43 percent of cities.
In addition to this, a city that was most similar to My City was found based on the safety rankings and population size and was determined to be Chicago. Using GDP and crime data for several years in Chicago’s past, a significant correlation was determined between the crime rate and the GDP of Chicago, which was then concluded to also apply to My City due to their similarities.
Also, using a model to determine which of the district and beats had the most dangerous proportion of violent and property crime within My City, districtspecific values were established that represented the proportion of the My City police force that would be assigned to each district in order to optimize the the safety by placing more officers in more dangerous districts and fewer in less dangerous ones.
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